Opening Current
Monday, October 5, 2026. Friday’s soft jobs report did not hold its bond-market relief. The official 10-year Treasury close rose to 5.28% on October 2 from 5.24% the day before, and daily mortgage indices ticked higher with it. This morning yields are edging lower, ISM’s services report showed price pressure at its hottest since 2022, and Wednesday’s Fed minutes are the week’s main scheduled test.
The Lead Current
Treasuries Erase the Jobs-Day Rally as Fed Minutes Loom
What Happened
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that employers added 29,000 jobs in September, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000 (mortgage.news, citing BLS). Treasuries rallied right after the release, but the gain faded. The U.S. Treasury’s official daily curve shows the 10-year closing at 5.28% on October 2, up from 5.24% on October 1 and one basis point below the 5.29% close on September 30, the highest 10-year close of 2026 so far (U.S. Treasury).
Mortgage indices followed the close, not the intraday rally. Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year index rose to 7.57% on October 2 from 7.54% (Mortgage News Daily), and Optimal Blue’s 30-year conforming lock index edged up to 7.379% from 7.368% (Optimal Blue via FRED).
This morning, CNBC reported the 10-year at about 5.255% as of 4:00 a.m. ET, down roughly one basis point, with CME FedWatch pricing a nearly 82% chance the Fed holds at its October meeting (CNBC). At 10:00 a.m. ET, ISM’s September Services PMI came in at 54.9, down from 55.4, but its Prices Index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022 (ISM).
Why It Matters
A weak payroll count lowered the odds of an October hike, but it did not lower long-term yields by the close, and long-term yields are what drive lock pricing. That gap is the story for originators this week: market odds on the Fed’s next move and the rate a borrower can actually lock are moving on different signals. Services inflation is one reason. ISM respondents cited fuel costs twice as often as any other issue, and prices have now run above 70 for six of the last seven months.
The ISM report also carried a housing warning from a construction respondent: “Interest rates continue to drive buyers out of the market. Half of buyers walking through the door cannot qualify to purchase.” That is one survey comment, not a statistic, but it matches what the application data has shown for weeks.
What to Watch Next
Minutes from the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, when the Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00%, are scheduled for Wednesday, October 7, at 2:00 p.m. ET. They are a record of that earlier meeting, not a new decision. The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28, and September CPI is scheduled for Wednesday, October 14.
Sources: U.S. Treasury daily yield curve; CNBC; ISM Services PMI; Mortgage News Daily; Optimal Blue via FRED; Federal Reserve September 16 statement; FOMC calendar.
Rates & Markets
Weekly surveys
Freddie Mac PMMS (week of Oct 1): 30-year fixed 7.28%, up from 7.03%; 15-year fixed 6.60%. Next release Thursday, October 8. (Freddie Mac)
MBA Weekly Survey (week ending Sept 25, released Sept 30): 30-year conforming contract rate 7.30%, up from 7.12%, with 0.75 points. Next release Wednesday, October 7. (MBA)
Daily indices
Marketplace and lender averages (Monday morning)
Zillow (via Yahoo Finance, Oct 5): 30-year purchase 7.40%, 15-year 6.66%; 30-year refinance 7.31%. (Yahoo / Zillow)
Bankrate (via WSJ, Oct 5): 30-year 7.49%, 15-year 6.78%. (WSJ / Bankrate)
Treasuries
Surveys, daily indices, marketplace averages, and Treasury yields use different methods and dates, so compare each only against itself.
Housing & Originations
Applications: MBA’s latest survey showed the market composite down 6.0% for the week ending Sept 25, purchase down 4% and refinance down 9% on a seasonally adjusted basis, with ARM share at 10.3%. (MBA)
Inventory without buyers: Realtor.com’s September report showed active listings up 5.4% from a year earlier to about 1.16 million, while homes under contract fell 4.1%, the steepest annual drop since March 2025. The median list price was $419,250, down 1.4% from a year ago. (Realtor.com)
Payment math: On a $400,000 30-year loan, principal and interest is about $2,737 a month at Freddie’s 7.28%, compared with about $2,669 at the prior week’s 7.03%, roughly $68 more from one week’s move. (Mortgage Current calculation.)
Policy & Regulation
Fed minutes Wednesday: The September 15–16 minutes are due October 7 at 2:00 p.m. ET. Watch for how officials framed further tightening and the neutral rate. (Federal Reserve)
Bi-merge credit reports: Bloomberg reported that FHFA plans to direct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to accept two-bureau credit reports instead of tri-merge, possibly announced as soon as October 12 at MBA’s conference in Chicago, with an effective date one to three months later. FHFA had not responded to HousingWire’s request for comment as of that report. (HousingWire)
Credit score pricing now live: Fannie Mae’s credit score loan-level price adjustments are now the same for Classic FICO and VantageScore 4.0, for whole loans purchased and MBS issued on or after October 1. (Fannie Mae)
Current Depth
Friday was a useful lesson in which signal moves mortgage pricing. Fed-hike odds fell fast on the payroll miss, but the 10-year still closed four basis points higher, and both daily mortgage indices moved up with it. Mortgage pricing tracks long-term yields and MBS spreads, and those respond to inflation risk, Treasury supply, and global bond moves as much as to the next Fed decision.
This morning’s ISM report shows why the inflation side is hard to dismiss. Services activity is still expanding, backlogs are at their highest since 2022, and the prices index at 74.0 points to cost pressure that a single weak jobs month does not resolve. The minutes may sharpen that picture, but they describe a meeting held before the September jobs data, so read them as context rather than a forecast.
The Morning Current
10-year Treasury closed at 5.28% on Oct 2, up from 5.24%, despite 29,000 September payrolls.
MND 30-year rose to 7.57% and Optimal Blue to 7.379% on Oct 2.
CNBC put the 10-year near 5.255% early Monday, with about 82% odds of an October hold per CME FedWatch.
ISM Services PMI was 54.9 for September; its prices index hit 74.0, the highest since July 2022.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year is 7.28% for the week of Oct 1; the next reading comes Thursday.
FHFA is reported to be preparing a bi-merge credit report order for the GSEs.
FOMC minutes arrive Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET; September CPI follows on Oct 14.
When to Lock
Lean toward locking files closing within 30 days if the current rate works for the borrower. Friday showed that soft data does not guarantee lower long-term yields, and the 10-year is sitting just below its highest close of the year. Borrowers with longer timelines who choose to float should set a lock trigger ahead of Wednesday’s minutes and the October 14 CPI report, and know how long their quote is valid. Nothing here predicts where rates go next. It is about limiting how much a bad day can cost a deal already under contract.
What to Watch Today
How the 10-year trades against its 5.29% September 30 close after the ISM prices reading.
Whether lenders reprice Monday sheets from Friday’s higher close.
Any Fed speaker comments ahead of Wednesday’s minutes.
MBS spreads, since mortgage rates can lag a Treasury rally when spreads widen.
Stay Current
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