September Home Sales Rise 1.5% to 3.99 Million as October Rates Top 7%

NAR said Tuesday that September existing-home sales rose 1.5% from a downwardly revised August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, still down 2.2% from a year earlier. That topped a 3.95 million consensus estimate; August was revised to 3.93 million (InvestingLive).

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said August and September were the two slowest sales months of 2026 so far, even with the small seasonal-adjusted rebound (NAR; Realtor.com).

Total inventory rose to 1.60 million units, up 1.9% from August and 4.6% from September 2025, equal to a 4.8-month supply. The national median existing-home price was $417,500, up 1.3% year over year and a record high for September (Realtor.com). Median time on market lengthened to 33 days from 31 in August.

That September pace closed against a Freddie Mac monthly average 30-year rate of 6.86%. The latest weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey (released Thursday, Oct. 8) shows the 30-year fixed at 7.40% and the 15-year at 6.73%—well above the September average that supported the closings in today’s report.

A 1.5% sales uptick and a thicker inventory stack improve negotiating room for purchase borrowers who can still qualify. They do not restore volume: year-over-year sales are still lower, and Yun warned that further rate increases in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify.

Originators should separate the print from the lock desk. September contracts largely reflected summer and early-fall rate levels near 6.8%–7%. Current survey and daily quotes are higher, so pipeline pull-through from today’s print will depend on whether October rate sheets ease or stay sticky into CPI.

Regional mix mattered: sales rose 2.8% month over month in both the South and the West, held flat in the Midwest, and fell 2.1% in the Northeast, where the median price jumped 4.7% year over year to $523,600 (NAR regional detail).

September CPI tomorrow, Wednesday, Oct. 14, at 8:30 a.m. ET (BLS October schedule)

MBA Weekly Applications Survey (week ending Oct. 9) on Wednesday, Oct. 14

Next Freddie Mac PMMS on Thursday, Oct. 15

FOMC meeting Oct. 27–28 (Federal Reserve calendar)

10-year: 5.24% on Fri, Oct. 9 (last official close; Monday was a bond holiday), up from 5.22% on Thu, Oct. 8. The prior week’s high close was 5.31% on Mon, Oct. 5.

2-year: 4.80% on Oct. 9, up from 4.75% on Oct. 8.

30-year: 5.60% on Oct. 9, unchanged from Oct. 8. The prior week’s high close was 5.67% on Wed, Oct. 7.

Zillow lender-marketplace averages via Yahoo Finance (Tue, Oct. 13): 30-year fixed purchase rate 7.32% (down 12 basis points from Monday), 15-year fixed 6.59%, 5/1 ARM 7.30%. Same-day Zillow refinance averages showed a 30-year refi near 7.39%.

NerdWallet / Zillow (Tue morning, Oct. 13): 30-year fixed APR 7.32%, 15-year fixed APR 6.64%. That is an APR, not a PMMS survey average—do not compare it directly with Freddie Mac’s 7.40%.

Freddie Mac PMMS (as of Oct. 8): 30-year 7.40%, 15-year 6.73%. Next release Thursday, Oct. 15.

Freddie Mac monthly average for September (cited in the NAR release): 30-year 6.86%, up from 6.67% in August and 6.35% a year earlier.

MBA (week ending Oct. 2): 30-year fixed conforming contract rate 7.49%, up from 7.30%; jumbo 7.39%; FHA 30-year 7.14%; 15-year fixed 6.71%; 5/1 ARM 6.43% (MBA). The next MBA print covers the week ending Oct. 9 and is due Wednesday.

Existing sales: 3.99 million SAAR in September (+1.5% month over month, −2.2% year over year). First-time buyers were 31% of sales; all-cash buyers 27%; individual investors and second-home buyers 20%; distressed sales remained 2% (NAR).

Inventory and pricing: 1.60 million homes for sale (4.8 months’ supply). National median $417,500 (+1.3% year over year). West median fell 0.3% year over year to $613,600; Northeast rose 4.7% to $523,600. Longer days on market and more listings are the buyer-side offset to still-elevated payments.

Applications: MBA’s latest survey (week ending Oct. 2) showed total applications down 4.2% seasonally adjusted, purchase applications down 2%, and refinance applications down 8%. That print still predates most of October’s rate jump; Wednesday’s survey will show whether the 7.4% PMMS week cut application volume further.

Fed debate into CPI: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told Semafor that AI-related cost pressure is “jumping out of its lane” into broader demand, and that persistent inflation would leave the Fed a clear path to act. He is not an FOMC voter in 2026. Separately, markets are watching September CPI tomorrow and the Oct. 27–28 FOMC meeting; do not treat any single print as deciding the path.

2027 conforming loan limits are still not official. FHFA’s 2026 one-unit baseline remains $832,750. FHFA typically announces the next year’s limits in late November.

NAR existing-home sales: 3.99 million SAAR in September (+1.5% month over month; −2.2% year over year).

Inventory: 1.60 million units (4.8 months’ supply). Median price: $417,500 (+1.3% year over year). Days on market: 33.

Treasury 10-year close: 5.24% (Fri, Oct. 9). 30-year: 5.60%. 2-year: 4.80%. Early Tue CNBC: 10-year near 5.202%.

Freddie Mac 30-year: 7.40% (Oct. 8). 15-year: 6.73%. September monthly average: 6.86%.

Zillow marketplace (Yahoo, Tue): 30-year purchase 7.32% (−12 bp). NerdWallet / Zillow 30-year APR: 7.32%.

MBA applications: −4.2% (week ending Oct. 2). Purchase −2%. Refi −8%. Next survey Wednesday.

This week: CPI and MBA apps (Wed), PMMS (Thu), FOMC Oct. 27–28.

Cash Treasury reopen after the holiday and any follow-through from the early yield dip

Rate-sheet reaction to softer yields versus sticky mortgage-market spreads

Wednesday, Oct. 14: CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET and MBA applications

Thursday, Oct. 15: Freddie Mac PMMS