Opening Current
Good morning. U.S. bond desks are closed today for Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples’ Day, so the last official Treasury closes remain Friday’s. Weekend coverage from The Washington Post, echoed in market roundups, describes a housing market tilting toward buyers—more listings, fewer bidding wars—while mortgage rates above 7% keep many households on the sidelines. Daily quotes ticked a little higher this morning. Here’s what that means for your pipeline this week.
The Lead Current: Housing Tilts Toward Buyers, but 7% Rates Keep Demand on the Sidelines
What Happened
The Washington Post (Oct. 12) reports that in many markets the multiple-offer, waive-the-inspection era has eased. Competition is lower and price growth has slowed, yet buyers are not rushing back because financing costs remain high.
Redfin data cited in a Newser summary of the Post/Journal coverage put September as the strongest buyer’s-market reading since Redfin began tracking the metric in 2013, with sellers outnumbering buyers by 63%. In the four weeks ending Sept. 20, 21% of sellers cut asking prices—the highest share for that time of year in Redfin’s series.
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (released Thursday, Oct. 8) still shows the 30-year fixed average at 7.40%, up from 7.28% the prior week and 6.30% a year ago. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.73%, up from 6.60%.
As of Monday morning, Oct. 12, Zillow data provided to NerdWallet put the average 30-year fixed APR at 7.41%, up 4 basis points from Friday. That is an APR, not a PMMS survey average.
Why It Matters
A softer listing market helps buyers who can qualify. It does not create demand by itself when monthly payments at 7%+ rates still stretch budgets.
Sellers cutting prices and offering concessions can improve closed-loan economics for purchase originators, but application volume remains weak: MBA’s latest survey (week ending Oct. 2) showed total applications down 4.2% and purchase applications down 2% (MBA).
With bond trading closed today, rate sheets will lean on Friday’s curve and any overnight futures moves until Tuesday’s open. That raises the odds of uneven morning pricing across lenders.
What to Watch Next
September existing-home sales tomorrow, Tuesday, Oct. 13, at 10:00 a.m. ET (NAR)
September CPI on Wednesday, Oct. 14, at 8:30 a.m. ET (BLS)
MBA applications (week ending Oct. 9) on Wednesday, Oct. 14
Next Freddie Mac PMMS on Thursday, Oct. 15
FOMC meeting Oct. 27–28 (Federal Reserve calendar)
Rates & Markets
Official Treasury closes (treasury.gov par yield curve)
10-year: 5.24% on Fri, Oct. 9 (last close before today’s bond holiday), up from 5.22% on Thu, Oct. 8. The week’s high close was 5.31% on Mon, Oct. 5.
2-year: 4.80% on Oct. 9, up from 4.75% on Oct. 8.
30-year: 5.60% on Oct. 9, unchanged from Oct. 8. The week’s high close was 5.67% on Wed, Oct. 7.
U.S. dollar fixed-income markets are closed Monday, Oct. 12, for Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples’ Day per SIFMA. Stock markets are open.
Daily and live quotes (not survey averages)
NerdWallet / Zillow (Mon morning, Oct. 12): 30-year fixed APR 7.41%, up 4 bp from Friday (NerdWallet). Do not compare this APR directly with Freddie Mac’s PMMS average.
Separate Zillow marketplace averages published by Yahoo Finance showed a 30-year purchase rate of 7.44% and a 30-year refinance rate of 7.37% on Oct. 12. Different Zillow pulls can diverge by a few basis points within the same day.
Survey averages
Freddie Mac PMMS (as of Oct. 8): 30-year 7.40%, 15-year 6.73%
MBA (week ending Oct. 2): 30-year fixed conforming contract rate 7.49%, up from 7.30%; jumbo 7.39%; FHA 30-year 7.14%; 15-year fixed 6.71%; 5/1 ARM 6.43% (MBA)
Housing & Originations
Applications: MBA reported a 4.2% seasonally adjusted drop for the week ending Oct. 2. Refinance applications fell 8% and were 56% below a year earlier. Seasonally adjusted purchase applications fell 2%; unadjusted purchase volume was 15% below a year earlier. ARM share held at 10.3%. FHA purchase applications fell 6%, the steepest drop among loan types (MBA).
Inventory and pricing: Redfin’s September buyer’s-market reading and the 21% price-cut share (four weeks ending Sept. 20) line up with the Post/Journal reporting that sellers are offering concessions even as high rates suppress tours and contracts (Newser / Post–Journal summary).
Next print: NAR existing-home sales for September are due Tuesday, Oct. 13, at 10:00 a.m. ET. Consensus around recent calendars has centered near 3.96 million (SAAR), after 3.98 million in August—treat the consensus as a market estimate, not an official NAR figure until the release.
Policy & Regulation
Treasury refunding watch: Citigroup’s U.S. rates desk said late Friday that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is likely to cut long-dated auction sizes at the Nov. 4 quarterly refunding—Citi’s base case is $3 billion less per auction for both 20- and 30-year bonds, funded with more bills, and the 20-year could be reduced or canceled. That is a Citi forecast, not a Treasury announcement (Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance). A dealer survey due next Friday may offer an early signal.
2027 conforming loan limits are still not official. FHFA’s 2026 one-unit baseline remains $832,750. Lenders continue to float early 2027 figures around $845,000 to $850,000. FHFA is expected to publish official 2027 limits in late November (National Mortgage Professional). A loan above the 2026 limit cannot be delivered to the GSEs until the new limits take effect.
Current Depth
Friday’s 10-year par yield of 5.24% is 7 basis points below the Oct. 5 close of 5.31%, but it is still 41 basis points above Sept. 9’s 4.83% on the same curve. Real yields did most of that month-long climb. Mortgage pricing has followed: Freddie Mac’s survey is at a three-year high, MBA’s contract rate hit 7.49% in the Oct. 2 week, and Monday’s daily APR quotes are a touch higher than Friday. Housing supply looks friendlier to buyers than it did a year ago. The binding constraint remains the payment, not the number of listings. This week’s existing-home sales and CPI prints will test whether that constraint is easing or tightening into the Oct. 27–28 FOMC meeting. Do not treat any single print as deciding the Fed path; September’s minutes said most participants saw another hike as likely appropriate by year end, without locking that move to the October meeting.
The Morning Current
Bond market closed today (Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples’ Day).
Treasury 10-year close: 5.24% (Fri, Oct. 9). 30-year: 5.60%. 2-year: 4.80%.
Freddie Mac 30-year: 7.40% (Oct. 8). 15-year: 6.73%.
NerdWallet / Zillow 30-year APR: 7.41% (Mon morning, Oct. 12), up 4 bp from Friday.
MBA applications: −4.2% (week ending Oct. 2). Purchase −2%. Refi −8%.
Housing: Redfin’s September reading was its strongest buyer’s market since 2013; 21% of sellers cut price in the four weeks ending Sept. 20.
This week: existing-home sales (Tue), CPI and MBA apps (Wed), PMMS (Thu).
When to Lock
This is not a forecast. With cash Treasuries shut today, lender sheets may be sticky or uneven until Tuesday. Borrowers closing within about 30 days who cannot absorb a higher payment may prefer locking into a known quote rather than waiting on CPI. Borrowers with more time and payment room can float with a written trigger tied to the 10-year or to a specific rate-sheet threshold. Confirm float-down language and lock-extension costs with your secondary desk before the Wednesday CPI print.
What to Watch Today
Overnight Treasury futures and any early Tuesday cash-market open after the holiday
Rate-sheet dispersion across lenders while bond desks are shut
Tuesday, Oct. 13: NAR existing-home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET
Wednesday, Oct. 14: CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET and MBA applications
Stay Current
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